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GM CAP Data, Evidence and Modelling: post-OBC approach
Sets out the process being undertaken to deliver the Data, Evidence and Modelling requirements in support of the FBC. It also describes the evidence to be supplied to JAQU and how this responds to the feedback received from JAQU and the Technical and Delivery Independent Review Panels (the T-IRP and D-IRP).
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Note 1 – Update to Appendices 2 and 3
Provides an updated response as at November 2019 to the feedback received from JAQU and the Technical and Delivery Independent Review Panels (the T-IRP and D-IRP).
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GM CAP: Next steps for data collection and the development of analytical tools
Provides information about further data collection and the development of tools planned as next steps, namely behavioural research of van drivers and other groups; the development of further Operational Cost Models for other vehicle types; on-street specialised goods vehicle surveys; and the analysis of evidence emerging from the Conversation and other bodies.
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GM CAP: Analysis of the freight market
Describes the number of HGVs operating in GM, the compliance status of those vehicles, and the business and usage patterns of those vehicles.
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GM CAP: Analysis of the coach market
Commercially sensitive so not for publication. Describes the number of coaches operating in GM, the compliance status of those vehicles, and the business and usage patterns of those vehicles. This evidence, and that contained in Note 3, is being used to inform scheme design and to support the development of analytical tools and modelling assumptions.
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GM CAP: ANPR Surveys: Summary of Initial Findings
Sets out the results of an ANPR survey conducted in January 2019 at 42 sites across GM. The survey was designed to provide a representative profile of the vehicle fleet operating in GM in terms of vehicle type (including fuel used) and age profile, in order to update the previous data used in the OBC with a more comprehensive and robust dataset. The results show that there are not major differences between observed levels of compliance in the overall GM fleet between the 2016 and 2019 surveys. This data set is now being used widely as part of the ongoing work to refine the proposals as part of the FBC development for the CAP.
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GM CAP: Behavioural response assumptions and available data sources
Sets out evidence gathered from a number of sources offering an insight into the vehicle markets in question and how they might respond to the range of measures proposed in the GM CAP. These include Stated Preference surveys that have been carried out by other CAP authorities (Sheffield and Bradford) and shared with GM.
NOTE: This note contains early work on revised behavioural response estimates which is superseded by later work – see Note 37 and Report T4 for the latest assumptions.
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GM CAP: LGV and HGV Operational Cost Models
'LGV and HGV Operational Cost Models’ describes a new analytical tool that has been developed in support of the GM CAP allowing the assessment of behavioural responses to a CAZ based on operational costs by vehicle type for HGVs and LGVs. It is proposed that this tool replaces the methodology for assessing behavioural responses as applied in the OBC.
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GM CAP: HGV Behavioural Responses Note
Sets out what behavioural response assumptions were applied at OBC for HGVs, the revised behavioural assumptions proposed for future analysis based on the HGV Operational Cost Model, and proposed next steps for analysis.
NOTE: This note contains early work on revised behavioural response estimates which is superseded by later work – see Note 37 and Report T4 for the latest assumptions.
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GM CAP: LGV Behavioural Responses Note
'LGV Behavioural Responses’ sets out what behavioural response assumptions were applied at OBC for LGVs, the revised behavioural assumptions proposed for future analysis based on the LGV Operational Cost Model, and proposed next steps for analysis.
NOTE: This note contains early work on revised behavioural response estimates which is superseded by later work – see Note 37 and Report T4 for the latest assumptions.
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GM CAP: Taxi Behavioural Responses Note
Sets out what behavioural response assumptions were applied at OBC for Hackney Cabs and PHVs, and consider a possible approach to updating these assumptions based on evidence derived from stated preference surveys carried out in Sheffield. It sets out proposed next steps for analysis, including the development of an Operational Cost Model for Taxis (Hackney Cabs and PHVs).
NOTE: This note contains early work on revised behavioural response estimates which is superseded by later work – see Note 37 and Report T4 for the latest assumptions.
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GM CAP: Analysis of Bus Upgrade Options to Deliver Air Quality Compliance
Commercially sensitive so not for publication. 'Note 11: Analysis of Bus Upgrade Options to Deliver Air Quality Compliance’ was produced in response to a request from JAQU for analysis scaling the proportion of bus compliance required to deliver compliance. Practically, this approach is very difficult to test in a way that would represent a real-world operational scenario that could be delivered as part of the CAP. Note 11 therefore presents two approaches to understand the influence of buses on compliance with the Air Quality Directive:
- how many of the GM bus service routes pass the predicted exceedance locations and the number of buses this represents compared with the GM bus operator vehicle fleet.
- how many of the modelled exceedances would remain if the preferred option (Option 8) excluded bus improvements at all (i.e. a CAZ that did not include buses as a type of vehicle to be charged).
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GM CAP: Evidence of the impact of 2021 implementation of a CAZ C (without exemptions)
Describes analysis carried out by GM to assess the risks of implementing a CAZ C in 2021 without also implementing a two-year sunset period as was proposed in the OBC. The Note sets out analysis of vulnerability by sector, based on the proportion of the fleet that would be non-compliant in 2021 compared to 2023; analysis exploring the risk of market distortion and the potential impact on small businesses; and analysis of the likely availability (or lack of availability) of second-hand compliant vehicles.
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GM CAP: Study Traffic Impact on Neighbouring Authorities
Presents the results of highway modelling carried out to assess the likelihood and potential scale of traffic re-routeing to avoid a CAZ.
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GM CAP: Local exceedances: Update
Sets out GM’s approach to identifying and assessing sites where further measures may be required in order to achieve compliance in the shortest possible time. The Note presents the results of analysis carried out to assess real-world traffic conditions and to compare these to model outputs, and analysis of NOx source apportionment and any local conditions affecting concentrations, such as canyons, including checking how accurate the representation of such conditions is in the model itself. It also sets out an update on work carried out to identify possible local solutions.
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Technical Note 14a Appendix A
Appendix A to Note 14: GM CAP: Local exceedances: Update. Provides maps and data for each site considered in the local exceedances study.
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GM CAP: Implications of the Emissions Factor Toolkit update for GM (EFT)
'Implications of the EFT update for GM’ considers the implications of Emission Factor Toolkit (EFT) version 9.1a, released by JAQU at the end of May 2019. GM’s methodology for calculating traffic emissions applies emissions factors has been derived from DEFRA’s Emission Factor Toolkit (EFT) version 8.0, which was originally released in November 2017. Version 9.1a of the EFT contains fleet figures which have resulted from a recent Department for Transport (DfT) project to develop new passenger car fleet projections in light of emerging evidence regarding changes in consumer purchasing behaviour which show a shift away from diesel cars and towards petrol cars, alongside a slowing in overall new car sales.
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GM CAP: Sensitivity testing of a CAZ C in 2023 with revised behavioural response assumptions
Presents the results of a sensitivity test of the impacts of a CAZ C (without any supporting measures) in 2023, applying revised behavioural responses for HGV, LGV, PHV and Hackney Cab. The bus upgrade was assumed as 100% for the purposes of this test. This test was conducted at the request of JAQU.
NOTE: Modelling contained in Note 16 was indicative modelling carried out at an early stage in the model development process and is superseded by the package modelling presented in Note 29, and Reports T4 and AQ3.
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GM CAP: Evidence supporting the decision not to progress with a GM-wide CAZ D
Sets out the options appraisal process applied at OBC and presents further evidence explaining why it is not considered that a GM-wide CAZ D cannot bring forward compliance.
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GM CAP: Minibus Vehicle Research
Describes the number of minibuses operating in GM, the compliance status of those vehicles, and the business and usage patterns of those vehicles.
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GM CAP: Taxi and Private Hire Vehicle Fleet Research
Describes the number of taxis and PHVs licensed and operating in GM and the compliance status of those vehicles. This evidence, and that contained in Note 18, is being used to inform scheme design and to support the development of analytical tools and modelling assumptions.
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GM CAP: Greater Manchester Specialised Goods Surveys Results Summary
Sets out the results of on-street surveys carried out at three sites identified in the local exceedances study where freight was a significant contributor of emissions. The surveys provide estimates of vehicle volumes by size, compliance status and industry.
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GM CAP: Sensitivity test: Full Electric Bus Fleet
Describes the results of a sensitivity test carried out to understand the impact on compliance of a fully electric bus network across GM. This was carried out as a theoretical test at the request of JAQU.
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GM CAP: Addendum to Note 3: GM Comparative Statistics
Presents the results of analysis carried out at the request of JAQU to test the reasonableness of GM’s assumption that the region was typical of the UK in terms of economic and business activity. It acts as an Addendum to Note 3.
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GM CAP: Summary update of ongoing work on local exceedances
Provides an updated position on the local exceedances project, acting as a follow-up paper to Note 14 which was supplied to JAQU in draft three weeks earlier.
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GM CAP: Updates to the Modelling Tools post-OBC Submission for the Do Minimum scenario
Describes a series of improvements that have been made to the underlying assumptions in the Do Minimum modelling scenario, in particular reflecting the release of EFT v9.1a and newly available data on bus services and fleets.
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GM CAP: Modelling the impacts of Sustainable Journeys Measures
Sets out the methodology that has been developed to test the impacts of a package of sustainable journeys interventions, and the results of those tests.
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GM CAP: Analysis of Funds
Sets out how the available tools have been used to assess the impact of different funding offers in terms of likely uptake and impact on behavioural responses. This analysis has fed into the assessment of the funding offers, alongside other evidence.
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GM CAP: Demand Sifting Tool Operating Manual
Describes the Demand Sifting Tool and acts as a manual for use, setting out the underlying assumptions and methodology within the Tool. This Note has been developed to meet the TIRP request for further detail on the operation of the Tools.
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GM CAP: Taxi and Private Hire Vehicle Operational Cost Model
Describes a new analytical tool that has been developed in support of the GM CAP allowing the assessment of behavioural responses to a CAZ based on operational costs by vehicle type for Hackney Cabs and PHVs. It is proposed that this tool replaces the methodology for assessing behavioural responses as applied in the OBC.
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GM CAP: Option for Consultation Modelling Summary
Presents the results of a series of tests of the updated Do Minimum scenario and of the full package of measures proposed for consultation for the GM CAP. Tests have been carried out for 2021, 2023 and 2025 and analysis has been carried out to estimate the forecast year of compliance, shown to be 2024 with the proposed package as per the Ministerial Direction. As such, this Note supersedes Note 16, which acted as an early test of a simplified CAZ-only scenario using an interim version of the updated tools.
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GM CAP: Alternative Sensitivity Test Modelling Summary Note
Sets out the results of a sensitivity test carried out to assess the possible impact of a CAZ D within the Inner Relief Road – in addition to the measures set out in Note 29 - on NO₂ concentrations and achieving compliance in the shortest possible time.
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GM CAP: Charge Level Sensitivity Testing
Describes modelling that has been carried out to test the impact of different charge levels on behavioural responses (i.e.: whether drivers choose to upgrade or stay and pay) and NOx emissions.
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GM CAP: Option for Consultation – Incremental Measures Modelling Note
Sets out the results of a series of tests carried out to test the impact of each proposed Implementation and CAF measure on NOx emissions and NO₂ concentrations.
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GM CAP: Sensitivity testing of electric taxi upgrade responses
Describes the sensitivity tests that have been carried out to assess the impacts of changes to the electric taxi assumptions on expected emissions and compliance with Air Quality Standards for NO₂.
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GM CAP: Vehicle finance subsidy
Sets out the development of the Vehicle Finance measure within the CAP, a Vehicle Finance Subsidy Model has been developed to calculate the level of subsidy required across vehicle types to offer the equivalent of an interest-free or subsidised vehicle finance offering to prospective and eligible applicants.
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GM CAP: Forecasting the required number of rapid chargers for Hackney Cabs and PHVs
Quantifies the number of electric vehicle (EV) chargers that will be required for hackney carriages and PHVs (referred to collectively as taxis) across GM.
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GM CAP: Representing the Funds in the Cost Models and Analytical Inputs for the Funds / Vehicle Finance models
Describes how the funds are applied within the vehicle cost models, in terms of the methodology and assumptions applied and the nature of the outputs.
Describes the calculation of the funds requirements from the cost model outputs and analysis developed, including the following tools/analyses that have been developed.
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GM CAP: Vehicle population estimates
Sets out the summary of the key vehicle volumetric information used in the project which is used to understand the behavioural responses for vehicle owners to the GM CAP.
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GM CAP: CAZ discounts and exemptions
Sets out the proposed discounts and exemptions, why GM have proposed them and then outlines the impact on compliance.
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Modelling Assumptions for the 'Option for Consultation'
Collates a summary of the package assumptions underpinning the modelling of the Option for Consultation as set out in other documents. For further detail, see the Data, Evidence and Modelling Consultation Summary Report; Technical Reports supporting the Option for Consultation; and Note 37.
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